Scottish Independence Referendum 2

[buchanskii]

I've read stuff from supposedly intelligent people living in rural Aberdeenshire stating things like "we don't need more division in these times of extreme economic hardship". This is a real concern - can anyone confirm to me that the UN chinook managed to drop its food parcels safely in and out of Monymusk, or at least that said parcels managed not to land on the Discovery Sport?

 

 

It's always good to have a bit of perspective in these sort of debates. There are hundreds of millions of people in the world who'd love to have the problems we have, we should stop talking ourselves down so much.

[Monkey]

I think one issue that may have a significant influence on the vote is the actions of the Labour Party at the UK level. At the last vote there was a unified No campaign with the three "main" UK parties sharing a platform. Also, at the time there was the coalition government and there was, if not an expectation, a reasonable belief that no one party would gain a clear majority at Westminster at the forthcoming election.

Following the shock landslide Tory win and the subsequent implosion of Labour, which many blame on the fact they joined the Tories in the unified no campaign, there is a real chance that Labour are unelectable for at least the next general election if not the one after that.

Faced with the prospect of an effectively unchallenged Tory Westminster government until 2025 or even 2030 unless Labour gets their arse in gear at the national level there may be many Scottish Labour voters who see a better option in Independence and then the election of the Scottish Labour Party.

Also given the feelings of some of the elected members of the Scottish Labour Party towards their national "leader" there may even be some prominent splits in the Scottish party regarding support for Yes if in 12-18 months prospects for Labour are no better at a UK level. Will Labour even risk joining the other parties on a No campaign this time around or will there be two different messages being produced from the UK level and even if that is the case will anyone listen to/believe anything promised or said by toothless Labour?

[Nelly]

Yes and remember, Nicola, your pocket money is £15 billion more than you would be able to raise yourself.

 

economics isn't your strong point is it?

[Bluto10]

Exactly.

If we vote No again I'm leaving. Fuck staying in a country full of pathetic losers who can't and won't stand up for themselves.

I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees.

I love this sort of tub thumping jingoism.

Puts a bit of light relief into the proper heavyweight discussion

[Jonty]

Saw this and it reminded me of Caley:

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wihaFybOrKw

[vanderark14]

I love this sort of tub thumping jingoism.

Puts a bit of light relief into the proper heavyweight discussion

 

you certainly put the heavyweight into the discussion ye fat cunt

[Bluto10]

that old chestnut; you'll need to do better than that vda min

[Lencarl]

Scottish Secretary David Mundell says any request for indyref2 will be declined. UK Government will not enter discussions or negotiations.

 

 

Good luck with that

[Redforever86]

I love this sort of tub thumping jingoism.

Puts a bit of light relief into the proper heavyweight discussion

Some fuds think if we vote no their house will fall down and the sea will dry up.

 

Scotland has heaps of unachieved potential, it shouldn't be about economics but there wouldn't be any bigger economic gain than London's EU tied financial centre moving North to Edinburgh.

 

It'll be alright, folk just need to man up and get it done.

[vanderark14]

Some great points from Monkey there. Less is best sometimes take note VDA, Caley, CS & co

 

 

aye and your posts are just full of insight.

 

1D1ot

[granite sheep]

Scottish Secretary David Mundell says any request for indyref2 will be declined. UK Government will not enter discussions or negotiations.

 

 

Good luck with that

Typical. As I said, the tories have gone full retard on the whole post Brexit situation, that and May's dictatorial attitude, and the announcement that it's not the time for a referendum are just playing into the hands of the SNP just now.

Goddamnit, even Cameron wasn't this fuckin stupid.

[beer gut]

Typical. As I said, the tories have gone full retard on the whole post Brexit situation, that and May's dictatorial attitude, and the announcement that it's not the time for a referendum are just playing into the hands of the SNP just now.

Goddamnit, even Cameron wasn't this fuckin stupid.

sturgeon has had her bluff called. there are virtually no tories up here so may has practically nothing to lose. the snp can scream and shout about being denied indy ref 2 all they want but in the end there is fuck all they can do about it. that is the process. the pm has to agree. bottom line is it hasnt even been 3 years past since the last one. sturgeon should have waited another 18 months or so but she was too eager. now she will look a right tit.

[Jonty]

A higher percentage of the good folk of Aberdeenshire, my own Council area, voted to Leave the EU, than voted for Independence.

 

Who speaks for us when Sturgeon and the rest bang on about Scotland's voice not being heard?

[Jonty]

Big Ruth?

That'll do me..

[Big Man]

Can Sturjo and the lads challenge this in court?

 

Yes. Judicial review of the decision...

[Jonty]

 

Yes. Judicial review of the decision...

Wrong Big Man. Parliament is sovereign in the U.K. (unlike in the states). The power to approve a referendum belongs to Westminster, and is not open to legal interpretation.

[chaos_defrost]

sturgeon has had her bluff called. there are virtually no tories up here so may has practically nothing to lose. the snp can scream and shout about being denied indy ref 2 all they want but in the end there is fuck all they can do about it. that is the process. the pm has to agree. bottom line is it hasnt even been 3 years past since the last one. sturgeon should have waited another 18 months or so but she was too eager. now she will look a right tit.

 

I think Sturgeon knew that May wouldn't allow for another referendum and it plays into this notion, that she's trying to convince people of, that the English don't listen to Scotland and view it as a less important part of the UK. Sturgeons playing politics here and she's not a fool.

 

If there's another indy ref, it's going to be won on stirring up that notion in Scots. You just have to look at the Brexit result to realise that there are a lot of people that don't vote in these referendums based on economic interests and those issues are far too complex and unclear for people to have any real understanding of.

[mcdougall(4)]

obviously these markets are easy to move but odd nonetheless

 

https://t.co/LxhEna8ZhP

[Clydeside_Sheep]

 

economics isn't your strong point is it?

 

Well, I am able to read the Scottish Governments own statistics:

 

Official Scottish government statistics showed the country spent £14.8bn more than it raised in taxes in 2015/16, including a share of North Sea revenue.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-37167975

 

The UK has a deficit too, (of course), but it cannot be denied that Scotland does very well out of the UK financially. (Part of the overall UK deficit is caused by generously allowing Scotland to spend more than it makes).

 

Here is the breakdown of Scottish Public spending for the period in question (same link):

 

Scotland's public expenditure 2015-16

£68.6bn

Total spend

• £23.6bn Social protection

• £12.2bn Health

• £7.9bn Education

• £2.8bn Policing

So, just to break even, we would need to rip £15 billion out of the above statistics. That represents a reduction of ~22% in public spending.

Where do you want it to come out of? Benefits? Health? Education?

The SNP have recently raised taxes, making Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK. This will offset the deficit a little, but not significantly.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/02/middle-class-scots-pay-400-income-tax-english-thanks-snp-green/

So, under the SNP not only have our international education ranking fallen to its worst ever level, they have also made us the highest taxed part of the UK and propose to take us into an environment where public spending will need to be slashed and likely taxes raised yet higher. Great.

Note currently that we spend ~34% of our budget on "social protection" - i.e. benefit payments.

 

A comparable nation, Ireland, in 2015 spent just 11% of its budget on social welfare, because it does not have the luxury of being part of one of the richest nations in the world.

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/social-benefits-in-ireland/

We can see clearly that independence would be a major shock to both the poorest (in terms of the level of protection the state can give them) and also the richest (in terms of how much tax they would have to pay).

There's no financial case for independence at all. That's exactly why the SNP rely on trying to whip up grievance and resentment instead, as we saw yesterday with Nicola Sturgeon moaning about "Maggie Thatcher" in her pathetic response to Theresa Mays statement.

[robbojunior]

Including a share of North Sea oil revenue?

 

That's where the lie breaks down. An independent Scotland would not have a 'share' of North Sea oil revenue. It would have 100% of oil revenue from Scottish waters.

 

Not to mention the already discussed potential Scotland has which is being stifled and in fact held back by uk government. Scotland's massive potential for renewables is being actively held back by Westminster.

[Clydeside_Sheep]

If you actually read Sturgeon's first announcement that she wanted another referendum she referred specifically to the single market. Only these papers seem to have imagined a U-turn.

I got the impression from her speech that this was always her position. Don't think this is a backtrack at all.

Its a massive u-turn.

 

Her position in the wake of Brexit was "Scotland voted to remain in the EU" and we wont be "dragged out against out will".

 

This was the supposed basis for a new indyref, that "most scots had voted to remain in the EU" (that isnt actually true, rather most Scots who voted at all voted to remain).

 

After Brexit she said:

 

Yesterday, Scotland - like London and Northern Ireland - voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU.

 

We voted to protect our place in the world's biggest single market - and the jobs and investment that depend on it.

 

We voted to safeguard our freedom to travel, live, work and study in other European countries.

 

And we voted to renew our reputation as an outward looking, open and inclusive country.

 

It is significant - in my view - that we did so after a campaign that was positive about the EU and about the benefits of migration.

 

The UK wide vote to leave the EU is one that I deeply regret.

 

It remains my passionate belief that it is better for all parts of the UK to be members of the European Union.

 

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1358534-nicola-sturgeon-speech-in-full-after-eu-referendum-result/

 

And

 

Nicola Sturgeon warned Wednesday that Scotland could hold another independence referendum if it is forced to leave the EU against its will.

 

“It would be a very serious mistake for the U.K. to vote to leave the European Union, and I think it would be democratically indefensible for Scotland, if we had voted to stay in, to face the prospect of being taken out,” Scottish First Minister Sturgeon told Reuters.

 

http://www.politico.eu/article/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-will-not-be-dragged-out-of-the-eu/

 

The SNP tactic was always to pretend Scotland was strongly euro-phile, and so try to generate grievance based on the UK brexit vote.

 

This was the whole rationale for a new indyref.

 

But it has increasingly become apparent that Scotland isnt strongly euro-phile, in fact its increasingly euro-sceptic.

 

And so she is now trying to change tact, by telling lies that EU membership was never important to her and there are in fact a range of options regarding the EU. So much for her "passionate belief" in EU membership.

 

The problem with new stance this is that (i) people can see she is lying and jumping about and (ii) it completely dissolves her argument for the need for a new indyref.

 

[Clydeside_Sheep]

Including a share of North Sea oil revenue?

 

That's where the lie breaks down. An independent Scotland would not have a 'share' of North Sea oil revenue. It would have 100% of oil revenue from Scottish waters.

 

Not to mention the already discussed potential Scotland has which is being stifled and in fact held back by uk government. Scotland's massive potential for renewables is being actively held back by Westminster.

 

It isnt a lie its the SNP Government's own figures.

 

I take your point about oil revenue, but:

 

Oil revenues tumbled from £1.8bn in the 2014-15 financial year to just £60m in 2015-16, according to Government figures.

At its peak in 2008, the industry brought in £11.5bn in revenue.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/24/scotlands-north-sea-oil-revenues-plunge-96pc-in-a-year/

For the period in question, (with the £15 billion deficit), the oil revenue was just £60 million - nowhere near offsetting the deficit.

At its peak (which we likely wont see again) oil revenue was £11.5 billion- still leaving a significant gap of nearly £4 billion.

Even if oil could offset Scotland's spending gap, it is a finite resource and so could not offset it forever.

[Foster14]

The problem with new stance this is that (i) people can see she is lying and jumping about and (ii) it completely dissolves her argument for the need for a new indyref.

 

That is the interpretation to suit your agenda.

 

An equally valid interpretation is that it should be up to the people of Scotland to decide on the range of options. As much as a poll may suggest otherwise (and it is a ridiculously fluffy question used to support it in the telegraph), 62% voted to remain in the EU last year.

 

The biggest problem for the SNP is there is a considerable element of pro-independence, anti-EU voters. There is a chance that while some of the 55% may have converted to yes, because of the EU decision, but there will be an equal fear that some of the 45% will go the other way if any actual campaign is played out too much on the EU argument.

 

Frankly I find it bizarre that anyone would let it boil down to that level, but some seem to want Scotland to make it's own decisions, but they are feart as a country we may make decisions they don't like. They'd rather leave it completely out of our control in the UK.

[Dynamo]

This is about brexit but it's just great

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/mar/16/british-expats-in-spain-count-the-costa-brexit-video

[Bluto10]

Including a share of North Sea oil revenue?

That's where the lie breaks down. An independent Scotland would not have a 'share' of North Sea oil revenue. It would have 100% of oil revenue from Scottish waters.

Not to mention the already discussed potential Scotland has which is being stifled and in fact held back by uk government. Scotland's massive potential for renewables is being actively held back by Westminster.

Robbo what is this unused potential you talk of?

 

Serious q.

[vanderark14]

Robbo what is this unused potential you talk of?

 

Serious q.

 

no point in asking, it'll go over your head.

 

Stick to the pub and beers, thats your area

[zander]

That is the interpretation to suit your agenda.

 

An equally valid interpretation is that it should be up to the people of Scotland to decide on the range of options. As much as a poll may suggest otherwise (and it is a ridiculously fluffy question used to support it in the telegraph), 62% voted to remain in the EU last year.

 

The biggest problem for the SNP is there is a considerable element of pro-independence, anti-EU voters. There is a chance that while some of the 55% may have converted to yes, because of the EU decision, but there will be an equal fear that some of the 45% will go the other way if any actual campaign is played out too much on the EU argument.

 

Frankly I find it bizarre that anyone would let it boil down to that level, but some seem to want Scotland to make it's own decisions, but they are feart as a country we may make decisions they don't like. They'd rather leave it completely out of our control in the UK.

 

Correct and this is the point that Sturgeon appears to me missing.

 

Know loads of folk who are now against independence due to the fact we will then be back in the EU.

[vanderark14]

Correct and this is the point that Sturgeon appears to me missing.

 

Know loads of folk who are now against independence due to the fact we will then be back in the EU.

 

its not a fact at all

[zander]

its not a fact at all

It more or less is though? That's the ambition of Sturgeon.

[robbojunior]

Robbo what is this unused potential you talk of?

 

Serious q.

 

The main one is renewables. Scotland's geographical positioning and the size of its coastline means it has the potential to be a world leader in wind and wave power. Given everyone harks on about how oil will eventually run out, and remember it will run out everywhere, not just in the North Sea, then renewable technology is the future.

 

There are several scandanavian projects leading the way, that have been designed by Scots who have had to go overseas to find any investment because the UK government don't give a shit.