Australian Open 2012

[Sonoftherock]

First Grand Slam of the year kicks off tomorrow... I'm heading over to Melbourne, to support Andy Murray, on Friday. Hedging my bets a little this year - I could end up with serious egg on my face should he get knocked out early! Got a really tough first round draw too, against Ryan Harrison - a talented young player who's likely to become a top player. He's got a reputation for losing his temper easily, so it should be quite an entertaining match!

 

Route to final could look something like this:

1R: Harrison

2R: Malisse

3R: Bogomolov Jr

4R: Monfils

QF: Tsonga

SF: Djokovic

F: Nadal/Federer/Del Potro

 

Harrison aside, until Tsonga in the Quarter Finals, it's quite a good draw... but from then on, it looks incredibly tough. After Del Potro, Tsonga was the player I wanted Andy to avoid - he's the type of player who gives him problems, really aggressive, with a rocket forehand.

 

Andy is in really good form and looked brilliant in the latter stages at Brisbane - he absolutely brutalised Tomic and Dolgopolov - two players who are flying right now. In spite of this, I don't see him doing it this year. Djokovic is just too good right now and the semifinals is probably where it all ends for Murray this year.

 

Should be a really interesting tournament though. The most interesting quarter of the draw is Roger Federer's - He's scheduled to meet Del Potro in the QF. Del Potro is showing signs of getting back to his best, while Federer has started to decline unquestionably. I said this time last year, that Federer wouldn't win another slam and I stand by that. Also in that quarter, is Bernard Tomic - his match with Verdasco is the tie of the first round - it should be a brilliant atmosphere in the Rod Laver tomorrow. I fancy Tomic to beat him. I've got a day off tomorrow too - so i can watch the full match!

 

Another potential first round upset that I fancy is Robin Haase to beat Roddick. Roddick has been terrible lately and while Haase is pretty unpredictable, on current form he could get the win.

[OddJob]

Hopefully with Lendl in his corner he can now finally land this elusive major title

[Sonoftherock]

Hopefully with Lendl in his corner he can now finally land this elusive major title

 

The master and his apprentice!

 

http://vimeo.com/34980462

[Jocky Balboa]

Very good analysis, SOTR. Although still a dangerous opponent, I also think that Federer has won his last Grand Slam. That leaves Djokovic and Nadal as the biggest threats to Murray, but I think the Lendl appointment has a lot of potential (while some bemoan his lack of credentials as a Coach at the top, he certainly knows what it's like to be on the fringes of greatness and eventually make that breakthrough... he won his first Grand Slam at 23, after losing his first FOUR finals, before going on to win every meaningful tournament under the sun, with the one exception being Wimbledon) and I think this will be a very exciting year for him.

[minijc]

I was looking at just betting on the top 4/6 players to win their first couple of matches bumping the profits on to the next and so on then from the q/f just do doubles with what I had but when Djo is 1/900 there is just no point unless I have some serious coin. Will be a good test for Andy, I think he'll do alright and could easily go far, no point in talking him up win it as it would take some going, infact for the eventual winner is will still be ridiculously tough.

[Sonoftherock]

Very good analysis, SOTR. Although still a dangerous opponent, I also think that Federer has won his last Grand Slam. That leaves Djokovic and Nadal as the biggest threats to Murray, but I think the Lendl appointment has a lot of potential (while some bemoan his lack of credentials as a Coach at the top, he certainly knows what it's like to be on the fringes of greatness and eventually make that breakthrough... he won his first Grand Slam at 23, after losing his first FOUR finals, before going on to win every meaningful tournament under the sun, with the one exception being Wimbledon) and I think this will be a very exciting year for him.

 

I think the winner comes from Djokovic and Murrays half this year. Djokovic should win, but I also think Murray is capable and Tsonga is my dark horse. If he gets in the groove and beats Murray in the Quarter, I see him as one of the few who could potentially take out Djokovic.

 

Most people are probably expecting a Nadal vs Federer semi, on the other side of the draw, but I don't think it'll turn out like that. I think there will be upsets on that side of the draw. Federer is definitely beatable these days, while Nadal has been a bit out of sorts lately and has been whinging a fair bit in the media lately - which isn't like him. He's been complaining a lot about the overcrowding on the tour calendar and just the other day he had a pop at Federer to the Spanish media. Some thing isn't right with Nadal at the moment.

 

The guy I'm most interested in is Del Potro. He spent last year recovering from his long injury layoff, but he was getting better all the time. I was at his match against Baghdatis at the Australian Open last year, where he really struggled and took an absolutely hiding in the end. However, as I say, he really started to progress in the latter half of last year. He's had a full off season to recover and train and I expect him to come back strongly this season. He'll be top 5 again, or better, this time next year. I think he can beat Federer in the Quarter Final. It would not surprise me at all if we see a Djokovic versus Del Potro final this year. Del Potros serve was back to it's brutal best by the end of last year, but he wasn't making enough impression on his opponents serve - if he gets back in touch defensively, then he will be hard to beat.

 

Regarding lendl, the lack of coaching experience is something a lot of people are talking about, however, how much "coaching" do you need to give someone like Andy Murray - who is one of the most gifted players of his generation. I think his input towards the mental side of things will be the most important thing. He won't take any shit from Murray. Murrays current entourage of Vallverdu, Green and Ireland are far too sycophantic for my liking.

[Sonoftherock]

I was looking at just betting on the top 4/6 players to win their first couple of matches bumping the profits on to the next and so on then from the q/f just do doubles with what I had but when Djo is 1/900 there is just no point unless I have some serious coin. Will be a good test for Andy, I think he'll do alright and could easily go far, no point in talking him up win it as it would take some going, infact for the eventual winner is will still be ridiculously tough.

 

I would avoid doing that this year. As I mentioned above, guys like federer and Nadal are vunerable right now I feel. I don't think the top 4 will all survive to the semi's, as they did so often last year.

 

Have a look at Tomic to beat Verdasco and Haase to beat Roddick... there may be some good value in those two matches.

[minijc]

I would avoid doing that this year. As I mentioned above, guys like federer and Nadal are vunerable right now I feel. I don't think the top 4 will all survive to the semi's, as they did so often last year.

 

Have a look at Tomic to beat Verdasco and Haase to beat Roddick... there may be some good value in those two matches.

Yeah I agree with you, heard on the news last week that both Raffa and Fed are struggling with injuries or somethings just not 'right' with them and something doesn't seem right with Djokovic either, looked at Haase. I love Roddick but he's not done anything of note for some time and to me anyway seems to be on quite a decline.

[Sonoftherock]

Yeah I agree with you, heard on the news last week that both Raffa and Fed are struggling with injuries or somethings just not 'right' with them and something doesn't seem right with Djokovic either, looked at Haase. I love Roddick but he's not done anything of note for some time and to me anyway seems to be on quite a decline.

 

I might be wrong... these guys are great champions, so you should never discount them - but I do feel they are vunerable at the moment.

 

Other guy to look at is Milos Raonic. I think he's also destined to become a top player - sooner or later he's going to take a few scalps at a major. He's a potential 4th round open for Djokovic - would absolutely love to see that match. I should be in Melbourne for the 4th round, so if it comes off, I'll be buying tickets!

[RUL]

Last year I saw most of this as had a newborn. Cracking tourney but forgive me if i don't see any of it

[Sonoftherock]

Tomic in 5 sets over Verdasco!

 

Wow! What a match! Wish I'd been there - what an amazing start to the tournament!

 

Melzer has also dropped out early!

[Sonoftherock]

I predict Murray will lose in the 2R.

 

I don't think he's that good.

 

Beats himself up inside, and only has himself to blame. No coach will ever change that about him.

 

More chance of him being beaten tomorrow, than in the 2R. He'll probably get Malisse, which should be as easy match as you could hope for at that stage. The young lad he's playing tonight is like Tomic - very talented and on an upward trajectory. Dangerous opponent.

 

Murray third up on the Hisense Arena, so for anyone who's interested, his match will probably begin around the time you guys rise from your pits!

 

Would be great to have a ticket for that session tomorrow:

 

Kirilenko up first, then a Sharapova/Dulko wank-fest, followed by Murray/Harrison and finally Haase against Roddick, where there is a good chance of an upset!

[Sonoftherock]

Murray loses the first set... took a bit of a pasting too!

 

Will be interesting to see if Harrison can keep this level of quality for two more sets. Reminscent of previous slam losses to Verdasco and Gonzales, where his tactic of trying to force errors backfired. This is usually the way Murray plays in the early rounds, but he may have made a big mistake - Harrison is a real talent.

[Sonoftherock]

Murray loses the first set... took a bit of a pasting too!

 

Will be interesting to see if Harrison can keep this level of quality for two more sets. Reminscent of previous slam losses to Verdasco and Gonzales, where his tactic of trying to force errors backfired. This is usually the way Murray plays in the early rounds, but he may have made a big mistake - Harrison is a real talent.

 

Murray now leading 2 sets to 1.

 

Harrison hasn't able to keep up that level of quality. He's still trying to paste every single ball as hard as he can... it was working for him earlier, he was hitting the corners every time, but now his groundstrokes just look wild. To be fair to him though, he's approached this match correctly. To beat Murray you need to try to hit through him, as Verdasco, Tsonga and Gonzales have done in the past - if the lower ranked players get involved in too many rallies, they'll find themselves struggling.

[Sonoftherock]

Wins 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2

 

Poor performance by Murray, but in the end he had too much for Harrison. This will have been an interesting match for Lendl to watch, Murray was struggling at certain points and had a few minor outbursts. Interestingly, in a break from the norm, none were directed towards his entourage... maybe the lendl influence?

 

If Murray continues to play this passively in the early rounds, one day he's going to get a big shock. He got caught cold by Tsonga in the first round of the Australian three years ago, but he doesn't seem to have learned his lesson. Won't happen in the next round though... Malisse had to retire after the first set, so he plays Edouard Roger-Vasselin instead. Know nothing about this guy, but doubt he has anything to worry Murray. I expect an easy, straight sets win.

 

Harrison looks like a great talent though - one to watch this season for sure.

 

Roddick match next... we could see an upset in this one I reckon.

[Sonoftherock]

Baghdatis vs Wawrinka match has been brilliant so far!

 

Baggy, 2 sets down and struggling, proceeds to smash his racket, then picks another three out of his bag and smashes them too! One after the other! The stadium is packed with greeks and they've all reacted to this and have started to go mental... Baggy just took the third set and it's absolute bedlam! Like a football match! Players shouting stuff at each other over the net! Wawrinka also complaining about the crowd - must be difficult in such a partizan atmosphere!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9HMymxIxLk

[K OK]

Was at the Hisense Monday and Tuesday, really enjoyed it! The atmosphere yesterday for Murray was the best I'd been to over the 2 days, the guy Harrison looked a good player himself.

[Sonoftherock]

Murray through in straight sets 1,4 & 4.

 

Pretty straight forward match, just as I thought. Big statistic for Murray was that he served 68% on his first serve. He'll have to continue that sort of form if he's going to go deep here.

 

Next round is Llodra - will be a much tougher match, but certainly one that Murray should be winning.

 

I'm flying out tomorrow, probably won't make Llodra match on Saturday... but we'll see! If he makes it through, I'll hopefully see the 4R match, thought that was going to Monfils, but he's struggling at the moment, so could well be Troicki! If he's still alive, I'm dreaming of a quarter against Tsonga!

[Jones]

Murray playing Llodra just now, pretty good match so far!

[vanderark14]

Murray through to quarters again with 6-1 6-1 1-0 win

 

his opponent must have had enough of the spanking he was taking and decided to retire with an injury

[thedandydon]

Nishikori in the next round too, after he beat Tsonga. Draw

[vanderark14]

Nishikori in the next round too, after he beat Tsonga. Draw

[robbojunior]

I reckon Murray will lose in the final again

 

if he gets past djokovic in the semis he'll win the whole thing i reckon.

 

problem is, he probably wont.

[OddJob]

I reckon Murray will lose in the final again

That's the spirit

[vanderark14]

That's the spirit

 

I've nothing against him and I'd love to see him win a major.............. just unfortunate for him that he comes in at a time where Djokivic, Nadal and Federer are/were unstoppable.

[OddJob]

I've nothing against him and I'd love to see him win a major.............. just unfortunate for him that he comes in at a time where Djokivic, Nadal and Federer are/were unstoppable.

Only joking mate, i know what you meant. Aye it is unfortunate, but tbh i think his mentality lets him down cause he has beat these guys before, just seems to be a major tournament problem

[RUL]

Through to semi finals now, played pretty well

[The Boofon]

Through to semi finals now, played pretty well

 

 

Ferrer or Djokovic in the semi.

 

If he wins that semi he's a stick on for the final. Form good and Lendl coaching has made a hoorin difference to his play in my opinion.

[Sonoftherock]

Evening from Melbourne.... just back from the Rod Laver - taking an early night tonight, ahead of Australia Day tomorrow!

 

Was at the game today - Murray played really poorly, but the Japanese was out of his depth. Nishikori was good from the baseline, but he has nothing on his serve and Murray absolutely destroyed his service. Honestly if Murray had played his best, this would have been 6-0, 6-1, 6-0. Expected more from him, but he' obviously given his all against Tsonga and had nothing left in the tank. A pity for his massive support!

 

Murrays service was shocking! Was waiting to get out of the stadium to hear his %.... knew it was under 50%! Got speaking to a group of Serbs, after the game, as they were arriving for the Djoko vs Ferrer match. They were already full of it - good banter though!! Told them they didn't have much to worry about, because if Murray serves like that against Djokovic it's going to be a humiliation. Hopefully Lendl knows where they have to improve ahead of the French and Wimbledon.

 

Decent atmosphere... much more Japs than Jocks, so the support was for Nishikori, but Murray didn't let it affect him. Only one Union Jack.... versus about 20 saltires! Very telling!

[The Boofon]

This can only be good news.

 

Djokovic with an injury.

 

Djokovic