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Top Six Out The Equation

dons22

By dons22,
in AFC and Scottish Football

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Crossbow Enthusiast

Crossbow

Posted
Posted

What are our remaining fixtures? St mirren away is winnable as is Motherwell, hearts too! Celtic have to lose eventually? Can't mind the others?

 

That a game is winnable is not in debate - do you really think that winning any of those games will be the priority for our club. Not losing is the pinnacle of our ambition.

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Stoney Newbie

Stoney

Posted
Posted

Killies win on saturday (that most were celebrating) and our draw yesterday effectivly killed off even an outside chance of europe and for the top 6 lovers thats probably out of the window too.

 

3 points on saturday are a must with Celtic and Motherwell (two teams we are not good enough to beat)

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Bamber Collaborator

Bamber

Posted
Posted

With the hard games coming up i think its just to much to ask we might need to get to 43 points in the next 5/6 games that means 3 wins and 3 draws no chance im afraid

 

hope im wrong though. No team has ever made the split with less than 42 i think.

 

 

the 43 points is correct however I think this year you are flawed in your thinking - the reason being to get the 43 points at 22 games teams should have 30 points or there abouts. This year the average was low 20's for teams from 6th downwards. At the point we are now at 26/27 games teams should have about 35 points if they want a top six place.

 

There has been a massive amout of draws this season last season in total there were 49 Draws. This season already we have had 43 and there are still 60+ games to go. in the whole of the season 5 teams hit double figures of draws and the maximum was 11 draws (3 teams) already this season 4 teams are already in double figures and two teams have already hit 11 draws (and we arent at 11 draws!).

 

This means I think you can chuck the 43 pts out of the window for the split this year and put it somewhere in the high 30's probably somewhere in the region of 38 would do it this year not only us but too many teams are playing for draws this year and not wanting to lose. means that in 5 games we need about 7 or 8 points imo.

 

The team that will nick a top six place is a team that plays for wins rather than draws - us dundee united St Mirren and kille are all the draw Masters this season no surprise then that we are all sat in the middle and who ever gets the bravery to transfer draws to wins can get top six

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Redstar Rookie

Redstar

Posted
Posted

Didnt look like killie played for a draw against rangers, or united away to st johnstone last week!

 

But we certainly played for a draw yesterday, only with 10 minutes to go did we eventually try and get the win.

 

There you go...a perfect summary of Broons game plan...Heeds doon , midfield and defence backs to the wall and if we find ourselves still at 0-0 with 10 to play...let

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Bamber Collaborator

Bamber

Posted
Posted

Didnt look like killie played for a draw against rangers, or united away to st johnstone last week!

 

But we certainly played for a draw yesterday, only with 10 minutes to go did we eventually try and get the win.

 

 

Killie 11 Draws 7 Wins

D Utd 10 Draws 7 Wins

Aberdeen 10 Draws 7 Wins

St Mirren 11 Draws 6 Wins

 

But that is exactly what I am saying if you gamble and play for a win you could get yur self out of this group and despite what the OP says 40+ points wont be needed a couple of wins and a draw could easily do it

 

Killie have Dundee ut and St mirren

D Utd have Killie and us

We have St Mirren and Dundee United

St Mirren have us and Killie

 

How you go against each otehr will be crucial oh and on top six day we play dundee united (at home) Killie play Celtic and St Mirren play rangers. reckon that day could decide the top six

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vanderark14 Contributor

vanderark14

Posted
Posted

I did yeah, watched it online. Seemed pretty even share of the ball, rangers had more shots but killie wernt far behind. No defensive changes after going ahead and kept their shape throughout.

 

We most certainly did play for a draw yesterday, did you go to the game?

 

no but I watched it.

 

that team did not play for a draw yesterday, it was a very poor standard of game though. We played just slightly less shit than St Johnstone.

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vanderark14 Contributor

vanderark14

Posted
Posted

Doctor?...I'd suggest the opticians for you mate...see if he can remove those "rose tinted" specs you seem to have stuck to yer fizzog

 

nothing rose tinted about my views. I know that we have problems with our team but yesterday was nothing like backs to the wall like you suggest.

 

we tried to pass the ball about albeit very unsuccessfully.

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V for Vendetta Newbie

V for Vendetta

Posted
Posted

the 43 points is correct however I think this year you are flawed in your thinking - the reason being to get the 43 points at 22 games teams should have 30 points or there abouts. This year the average was low 20's for teams from 6th downwards. At the point we are now at 26/27 games teams should have about 35 points if they want a top six place.

 

There has been a massive amout of draws this season last season in total there were 49 Draws. This season already we have had 43 and there are still 60+ games to go. in the whole of the season 5 teams hit double figures of draws and the maximum was 11 draws (3 teams) already this season 4 teams are already in double figures and two teams have already hit 11 draws (and we arent at 11 draws!).

 

This means I think you can chuck the 43 pts out of the window for the split this year and put it somewhere in the high 30's probably somewhere in the region of 38 would do it this year not only us but too many teams are playing for draws this year and not wanting to lose. means that in 5 games we need about 7 or 8 points imo.

 

The team that will nick a top six place is a team that plays for wins rather than draws - us dundee united St Mirren and kille are all the draw Masters this season no surprise then that we are all sat in the middle and who ever gets the bravery to transfer draws to wins can get top six

 

Gives us a bit more hope I suppose.

 

Also makes a good case for the larger league, well assuming this might remove the shackles from the mid table teams and see the go for wins rather than safety first.

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afc_blockhead Mentor

afc_blockhead

Posted
Posted

Killie 11 Draws 7 Wins

D Utd 10 Draws 7 Wins

Aberdeen 10 Draws 7 Wins

St Mirren 11 Draws 6 Wins

 

But that is exactly what I am saying if you gamble and play for a win you could get yur self out of this group and despite what the OP says 40+ points wont be needed a couple of wins and a draw could easily do it

 

Killie have Dundee ut and St mirren

D Utd have Killie and us

We have St Mirren and Dundee United

St Mirren have us and Killie

 

How you go against each otehr will be crucial oh and on top six day we play dundee united (at home) Killie play Celtic and St Mirren play rangers. reckon that day could decide the top six

 

Good post , this puts to bed the views of those that have highlighted Killie and Dundee Utd as great examples of "going for it" , when they have drawn pretty much the same amount of games as us !

 

Yesterday was frustrating , but I would argue St Johnstone played for a draw . Every man behind the ball and closing us down quickly .

 

We have only lost once in 14 games with the last 10 unbeaten . We have only conceded 4 in the last 10 . We are still in the cup and 1 point from the top 6.

 

All positives . Too many 0-0's and not enough scored are obvious negatives . However , as I've said we are now very very solid , which is a miracle from the position we faced when Brown arrived . Bamber's post shows that across the league as a whole , draws are more common this season , so its not just us .

 

When I've said in the past that Brown has made us solid and in the summer will hopefully add the width etc , I don't expect to have to re-iterate that after every game :blahblah1: . We have had amazingly bad luck with injuries as well which can't be ignored . Milsom and Pawlett for a start would add creativity .

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Redstar Rookie

Redstar

Posted
Posted

nothing rose tinted about my views. I know that we have problems with our team but yesterday was nothing like backs to the wall like you suggest.

 

we tried to pass the ball about albeit very unsuccessfully.

 

With 7000 thru the door yesterday it's patently obvious that AFC are not producing a marketable product that will get anyone other than die-hard fans to the stadium...on what was a fairly pleasant afternoon...add some wind and rain and this figure could slump to 5000

 

As long as the gate continues to decline...and it will with this style of football...AFC will continue to slip behind the Motherwell's and Kilmarnock

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vanderark14 Contributor

vanderark14

Posted
Posted

With 7000 thru the door yesterday it's patently obvious that AFC are not producing a marketable product that will get anyone other than die-hard fans to the stadium...on what was a fairly pleasant afternoon...add some wind and rain and this figure could slump to 5000

 

As long as the gate continues to decline...and it will with this style of football...AFC will continue to slip behind the Motherwell's and Kilmarnock

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Redstar Rookie

Redstar

Posted
Posted

AFC haven't produced a marketable product for years, its nothing new. We are just now seeing that people are fed up of it. There a million reasons why people are not turning up and its not all down to a marketable product.

 

Fair comment...but it could and should be argued that the appointment of Craig Brown has been a complete disaster...lets cut our losses and get a younger more capable man in at the end of the season...Adams,Lennon (Danny) or even Paul Hartley would be a better option...the longer Broon is at the club the harder we are making it for the new man

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vanderark14 Contributor

vanderark14

Posted
Posted

Fair comment...but it could and should be argued that the appointment of Craig Brown has been a complete disaster...lets cut our losses and get a younger more capable man in at the end of the season...Adams,Lennon (Danny) or even Paul Hartley would be a better option...the longer Broon is at the club the harder we are making it for the new man

 

thats a bit of an OTT statement. not really going to bother debating Craig Brown with you as its obviously to the blind you have a deep seeded hatred of the guy.

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Crossbow Enthusiast

Crossbow

Posted
Posted

Good post , this puts to bed the views of those that have highlighted Killie and Dundee Utd as great examples of "going for it" , when they have drawn pretty much the same amount of games as us !

 

 

When I've said in the past that Brown has made us solid and in the summer will hopefully add the width etc , I don't expect to have to re-iterate that after every game :blahblah1: . We have had amazingly bad luck with injuries as well which can't be ignored . Milsom and Pawlett for a start would add creativity .

 

Bad luck with injuries does not make up for the fact that we've had two transfer windows go by and not managed to find a single dedicated fullback.

 

Pawlett cannot be regarded as a player whose fitness can be counted on - that being said when played CB seems to howk him off quite regularly.

 

Losing Milsom I concur is a shame but injuries are to be expected and we have really not asddressed in any successful fashion the playmaker role or the width role. Now I have hopes that Rae/Hughes will provide something in the centre - an area we are not short of candidates for - but we are very narrow with no one really capable of beating a man and then crossing.

 

Draws do not tell the whole story - when one team plays for a draw and succeeds - even if the other is going for it they only get a draw too - and of two teams play for a win and both score the same number it is also a draw - but generally a better spectacle

 

............ Played Scored

St Johnstone 26 33

Kilmarnock 26 30

Dundee Utd 26 38

Aberdeen 27 27

 

we might be in the mid table fight but we're at the bottom of it having played most games and scored the least goals (to be fair of course we have let less in too).

 

If we didn't have Vernon - we'd be in an even sorrier state. Now that is an injury that I'd really fear.

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K-9 Newbie

K-9

Posted
Posted

the 43 points is correct however I think this year you are flawed in your thinking - the reason being to get the 43 points at 22 games teams should have 30 points or there abouts. This year the average was low 20's for teams from 6th downwards. At the point we are now at 26/27 games teams should have about 35 points if they want a top six place.

 

There has been a massive amout of draws this season last season in total there were 49 Draws. This season already we have had 43 and there are still 60+ games to go. in the whole of the season 5 teams hit double figures of draws and the maximum was 11 draws (3 teams) already this season 4 teams are already in double figures and two teams have already hit 11 draws (and we arent at 11 draws!).

 

This means I think you can chuck the 43 pts out of the window for the split this year and put it somewhere in the high 30's probably somewhere in the region of 38 would do it this year not only us but too many teams are playing for draws this year and not wanting to lose. means that in 5 games we need about 7 or 8 points imo.

 

The team that will nick a top six place is a team that plays for wins rather than draws - us dundee united St Mirren and kille are all the draw Masters this season no surprise then that we are all sat in the middle and who ever gets the bravery to transfer draws to wins can get top six

No chance 38 will get top six. For that to happen Killie would have to get 6 points or less in their remaining 7 games to split and dundee united to get 7 or less in 7 games.

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