Bonnyrigg Rose

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

Note that most bookmakers peg Bonnyrigg as favourites for league 2, at obviously, lower odds than this Saturday's visitors - Forfar.

That said why are the same bookmakers pricing up Forfar as favourites for Saturday's match-up?

Can someone with better knowledge than mine explain why?

[Studebaker-90]

The more important question is why have you taken it upon yourself to make a new thread about it 

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

Purely because I have punted on them to win league and win on Saturday and the inconsistency is bugging me.

Why not bug others too, in the hope that one of the site posters is actually highly intelligent, and has plausible reasoning for  the bookies actions. 

[maryhilldon]

55 minutes ago, Sooper-hanz said:

What’s the sketch with Bonnyrigg? Have they been filled up with decent players recently and are expected to do well over the long haul but maybe take a few games to get used to each other ? Take into account they’re playing against an established Falkirk team?

How have  pre season games gone?  I have no idea and can’t be fucked researching it but will be something along those lines. 

I'm not sure anyone gives a fuck Hanzo. Strange thread.

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

11 minutes ago, Sooper-hanz said:

It's a fair point. Team favourite to win the league, at home, but not favourite to win that game? 

Hence my question Hanz.

You are probably right with your assumptions but I hear that Bonnyrigg's pitch is on quite a slope, which is surely an advantage for the home side.

They say bookies never wrong but I am banking on that being the case come Saturday, with a home win.

[Poodler]

Forfar got a Vietnamese keeper now? 

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

9 hours ago, Sooper-hanz said:

If they play both halves shooting down the slope it's an advantage. 

If Bonnyrigg are used to playing up and down slope on regular basis as opposed to Forfar not being used to slope, that is surely a potential advantage. 

Whatever the case Saturday's end result will give us an insight whether bookies are well informed, or not.

[Guest milne_afc]

3 minutes ago, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Bonnyrigg are used to playing up and down slope on regular basis as opposed to Forfar not being used to slope, that is surely a potential advantage.

Who’s their manager? Ken McKenzie?

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

4 minutes ago, milne_afc said:

Who’s their manager? Ken McKenzie?

A big noise called Robbie Horn.

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

On 7/28/2022 at 9:40 AM, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Note that most bookmakers peg Bonnyrigg as favourites for league 2, at obviously, lower odds than this Saturday's visitors - Forfar.

That said why are the same bookmakers pricing up Forfar as favourites for Saturday's match-up?

Can someone with better knowledge than mine explain why?

The bookie bastards presume Bonnyrigg Rose will win their league after 36 games, once they adapt accordingly to a slightly better standard of football in League 2.

The Loons are already equipped to win away to Bonnyrigg Rose, going by the layers' mindset, but Forfar are historically very inconsistent, therefore the bookies, in essence, are playing mind games with the punter, in terms of the outcome of the league and this particular match.

Avoid a bet on the match at all costs and let the league develop before placing a wager on any aspect of it.

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

59 minutes ago, Matt Armstrong's Dog said:

The bookie bastards presume Bonnyrigg Rose will win their league after 36 games, once they adapt accordingly to a slightly better standard of football in League 2.

The Loons are already equipped to win away to Bonnyrigg Rose, going by the layers' mindset, but Forfar are historically very inconsistent, therefore the bookies, in essence, are playing mind games with the punter, in terms of the outcome of the league and this particular match.

Avoid a bet on the match at all costs and let the league develop before placing a wager on any aspect of it.

Wise words I am sure.

However I recall a few moons back, when Cove entered League 2, they were pitched at 6/4 for their first home game, probably for similar reasons to what you have given.

All other home games that season were pitched at 1/2 or less following a 5-0 victory in the first game.

I am not too certain that Bonnyrigg will follow the same path but 11/5 was too good for me, especially as they are now lower than 6/4 favourites for the match and dropping.

I may, and most probably, be wrong but it is value in my money back 5-fold, which contains 4 other selections which are considered as more like bankers. 

We shall see what happens?

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

4 hours ago, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Wise words I am sure.

However I recall a few moons back, when Cove entered League 2, they were pitched at 6/4 for their first home game, probably for similar reasons to what you have given.

All other home games that season were pitched at 1/2 or less following a 5-0 victory in the first game.

I am not too certain that Bonnyrigg will follow the same path but 11/5 was too good for me, especially as they are now lower than 6/4 favourites for the match and dropping.

I may, and most probably, be wrong but it is value in my money back 5-fold, which contains 4 other selections which are considered as more like bankers. 

We shall see what happens?

Best of luck loon?. It may end up with a win for Bonnyrigg Rose, in similar fashion to Cove when they first entered the league, but I would be avoiding that match though.

It is worth a percentage bet though 

 

[Don Fonte]

4 hours ago, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Wise words I am sure.

However I recall a few moons back, when Cove entered League 2, they were pitched at 6/4 for their first home game, probably for similar reasons to what you have given.

All other home games that season were pitched at 1/2 or less following a 5-0 victory in the first game.

I am not too certain that Bonnyrigg will follow the same path but 11/5 was too good for me, especially as they are now lower than 6/4 favourites for the match and dropping.

I may, and most probably, be wrong but it is value in my money back 5-fold, which contains 4 other selections which are considered as more like bankers. 

We shall see what happens?

Fuck the rest of them. You've spotted a flaw. Stick a grand on it.

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

27 minutes ago, Sooper-hanz said:

Right matey, how much did you win?

My original stake back on my money back 5-fold. 

Queen of the feckin' South let me down. 1-0 up after a minute, then went 2-1 down, then missed a penalty in 80th minute and Clyde counterattacked up other end and scored a third, scoring a fourth thereafter. QOS officially binned from my future weekly shortlists.

Next week's value in my 5-fold? Thought about Dumbarton away to Albion but have plumped for Dunfermline away to Edinburgh. 

[shut up meg]

On 7/28/2022 at 9:40 AM, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Note that most bookmakers peg Bonnyrigg as favourites for league 2, at obviously, lower odds than this Saturday's visitors - Forfar.

That said why are the same bookmakers pricing up Forfar as favourites for Saturday's match-up?

Can someone with better knowledge than mine explain why?

I'm not a gambler but is the odds not set by the amount of money that the bookies has on their books?

The reason that England are always down as one of the favourites with the bookies ere in the UK at every tournament is down to all the guffs putting money on their team.

I would assume that some money has went on Bonnyrigg to win the league and some cash has went on Forfar for the opening game and the bookies are just adjusting the odds to reduce their risk.

[BaaBaaRedSheep]

Spoke to the son of a bookmaker a few years back.

The most likely leagues for value odds are the Scottish lower leagues, given that the folk who set the odds down south are not very interested in our game.

Bet 365 tend to be first to set odds and all the other bookmakers then follow with similar odds.

Bonnyrigg odds were wrong this week but once folk like me noticed this and punted on them the odds reduced to make them favourites before the match kicked off.

In conclusion Scottish Leagues 1 and, particularly, 2 are the leagues to go for value odds, once you have drawn up a shortlist.

[Redforever86]

On 7/31/2022 at 4:01 PM, BaaBaaRedSheep said:

Spoke to the son of a bookmaker a few years back.

The most likely leagues for value odds are the Scottish lower leagues, given that the folk who set the odds down south are not very interested in our game.

Bet 365 tend to be first to set odds and all the other bookmakers then follow with similar odds.

Bonnyrigg odds were wrong this week but once folk like me noticed this and punted on them the odds reduced to make them favourites before the match kicked off.

In conclusion Scottish Leagues 1 and, particularly, 2 are the leagues to go for value odds, once you have drawn up a shortlist.

It's only value if you actually no more than the bookmakers. Probably ace value in random leagues in Asian but we know fuck all about them. 

The problem you also have these days is they have the advantage of statistical analysis and more data than we could imagine. 

That's not to say, if you do have key team selection info etc you can make a profit. 

[Don Fonte]

12 minutes ago, Redforever86 said:

It's only value if you actually no more than the bookmakers. Probably ace value in random leagues in Asian but we know fuck all about them. 

The problem you also have these days is they have the advantage of statistical analysis and more data than we could imagine. 

That's not to say, if you do have key team selection info etc you can make a profit. 

As you no (know), the odds aren't always calculated on the chance of the outcome happening.

They are adjusted to limit the bookies liability. To ensure they always make profit.

But yes, you can get some #earlyvalue on lower leagues before most punters realise and bet on it.

[far's_the_bogs?]

On 7/29/2022 at 8:47 AM, milne_afc said:

Who’s their manager? Ken McKenzie?

Excellent local referencing there, bravo.