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  • 3 weeks later...

Missed your tip.

Was predicted fav most of the time so didn't bother. (hate tipping favs) but didn't actually go off fav which was a wee boost.

 

Reckon he'll be moving up in class soon. Potentially getting too good for the Scottish meets.

Nae convinced he's good enough myself yet but you never know.

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I had a bit on him lastnight, backed him last time aswell when he grabbed the third place, turning in to a decent sort, FnD.

Yeah he was a pretty poor/slow starter for us but he's been running with his tail on fire last couple of seasons. Seems at his best on Gd/ Gd-Fm ground now.

Certainly one to keep an eye on but I won't be tipping him unless I fancy him at a decent price. Maybe once he moves up in class.

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Backed Sevilla and both teams to score tonight @ 5/1, after I got 4 horses up today in a L15. Nae idea how to post photos though. Great day of punting for a change.

I got a treble up on the horses, was it any of these you had ?

3.55 Warwick - The Tourard Man 5/2

5.35 Warwick - River Wylde 10/11

8.15 Southwell - Vinegar Hill 5/4.

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Been having a bit of luck lately with goals bets so thought I'd share my thoughts (and no doubt jinx myself)

 

The Falkirk v Killie match could turn out to be a low scoring affair tonight. Killie have shown at times that they can grind out a 0-0 in big games and I'm sure Lee Clark would take a draw or even a narrow defeat back to Rugby Park. Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is the bet for me. At smaller stakes I'll take under 1.5 at 12/5 and no goalscorer at 9/1. I might cover 1-0 Falkirk at 7/1 and 2/0 at 10/1 as well but that depends on team news nearer the time.

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Walsall v Barnsley. Walsall are 3-0 down from the first leg so will surely set up to attack tonight. Barnsley' s last 3 games all had over 2.5 goals but the 3 prior to that all had under 2.5 making this hard to predict. My instinct is for both teams to score and a Wallsall win with Barnsley still qualifying so I'm betting Wallsall and under 2.5 goals at 4/1

 

I've done that in a double with Falkirk and under 2.5 goals at 24/1 for the double.

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The only reason I don't fancy that Tommy is that two of the teams involved will just be desperate to keep the scores down. I can't see Barnsley or Killie even trying to score tonight. Good luck though and I'm very probably going to be proved massively wrong.

We'll probably both be wrong and Ebbe will get richer.

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Been having a bit of luck lately with goals bets so thought I'd share my thoughts (and no doubt jinx myself)

 

The Falkirk v Killie match could turn out to be a low scoring affair tonight. Killie have shown at times that they can grind out a 0-0 in big games and I'm sure Lee Clark would take a draw or even a narrow defeat back to Rugby Park. Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is the bet for me. At smaller stakes I'll take under 1.5 at 12/5 and no goalscorer at 9/1. I might cover 1-0 Falkirk at 7/1 and 2/0 at 10/1 as well but that depends on team news nearer the time.

No bad shout even though I say so myself. Cashed out on 80mins for about 75% of my winnings so was well chuffed when the goal went in. Didn't do 1-0 Falkirk in the end but never mind.

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Millwall v Bradford. Not much between these 2 sides. They were only a point apart over the season and by all accounts Bradford were undone by a couple of set pieces in the first leg but otherwise were not totally out of the game. Millwall have only lost one goal in their last 8 homes games and obviously have a lead to hold onto. I predict a low scoring match again and will be betting under 2.5 at 3/4, under 1.5 at 9/4 and no goalscorer at 17/2. Same as last night though I'll be watching my cash out options in the second half.

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Cash out is a crap out, favours the bookies massively, believe me, forget it exists and you'll end up better off.

 

PS I never bet under 2.5 goals.

 

PPS I only use betfair and my profit and loss account is thousands in my favour, I keep expecting to be banned but not happened yet, I only bet on stats, shots on goal and on target, betting before the game starts is a mugs game, if it's a tight match you'll see it on the stats after 20-30 minutes, shots flying in lump on over 2.5. This sounds braggy but I'm just trying to help a fellow punter, I've lost plenty over the years before I found a winning formula.

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Appreciate the advice Dayts but I cashed out an accumulator I did at the start of the season for £1600 that would've lost. Also got £150 last night for no goalscorer in the Falkirk game which obviously would've lost. Cash out is a risk, same as all betting, but used wisely you can make a few notes.

 

Also hardly anyone bets unders for goals, people generally expect goals, so the odds on unders are artificially high. I do bet overs as well though, I'll be on them tomorrow for the Scottish Cup final.

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That the betfair exchange you use?

 

Nah, as Buchan says, Sportsbook.

 

I'm picky, like the Peru league and the MLS, Belgian league is nae bad for goals as well, the mecca is the Aussie leagues but I'm usually pissed by the time they start.

 

Keep disciplined, watch shots and on targets, don't see a bet leave it, a lot of people bet for the buzz and will play anyway.

 

AND stay away from the cash in.

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Appreciate the advice Dayts but I cashed out an accumulator I did at the start of the season for £1600 that would've lost. Also got £150 last night for no goalscorer in the Falkirk game which obviously would've lost. Cash out is a risk, same as all betting, but used wisely you can make a few notes.

 

Also hardly anyone bets unders for goals, people generally expect goals, so the odds on unders are artificially high. I do bet overs as well though, I'll be on them tomorrow for the Scottish Cup final.

 

Nae problem min, didn't want to sound condescending just accept I'm probably older than most here and have made more than my fair share of mistakes and losses, different strokes for different people.

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No offence taken man. Been betting for over 20 years and can honestly say I'm probably evens overall. Had a few great scoops, especially this season, and never lose too much. Like my goals bets though, find it easier to gauge how open a game will be rather than who will win. Also you can set your stakes according to the odds for multiple outcomes and minimise losses or maximise wins. Tonight I'll have a big punt on under 2.5 so that my stakes on under 1.5 and ngs are covered if 2 goals are scored with a wee profit on top. If there is only one goal or even better no goal I'm quids in. Always potential for a 3-3 and I'm fucked though.

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No offence taken man. Been betting for over 20 years and can honestly say I'm probably evens overall. Had a few great scoops, especially this season, and never lose too much. Like my goals bets though, find it easier to gauge how open a game will be rather than who will win. Also you can set your stakes according to the odds for multiple outcomes and minimise losses or maximise wins. Tonight I'll have a big punt on under 2.5 so that my stakes on under 1.5 and ngs are covered if 2 goals are scored with a wee profit on top. If there is only one goal or even better no goal I'm quids in. Always potential for a 3-3 and I'm fucked though.

 

I'm so opposite, always watch the in play games play out on the Wiliam hills site as I love the Goooooooooooooooal when some team scores, always bet over or don't bet at all, suits me. I treat it like a job these days, no wild punts, bet on what I see on the stats, to be honest it bores me crazy at times and I should take breaks but I always end up searching games for a bet, gives me a tidy second income but it's hard work.

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